Energy Sector
Verlo siempre en Español
14 November 2025
Is there a risk of another blackout in Spain?
The 28 April blackout was a warning sign about the vulnerability of the Spanish electricity system. Drawing the right lessons is essential to correct the weaknesses that surfaced and make the system even more robust and reliable.
28 April 2025: streets in downtown Málaga during the blackout.
Context of the 28 April blackout
The 28 April blackout was a serious alert about the fragility of the Spanish electricity system, occurring at a time of rapid transformation toward a more sustainable and renewable model. It’s crucial to learn from what happened to strengthen the system and make it even more robust and reliable.
Over the last five years, the Spanish electricity system has undergone a deep and positive transformation, becoming a European benchmark in the energy transition. Several milestones demonstrate this:
- Doubling of installed renewable capacity.
- Near-total closure of coal plants.
- 50% reduction in CO₂ emissions.
- A more competitive electricity market than other European markets.
This progress is substantial: Spain has proven that the energy transition is possible, effective, and beneficial. Renewables are now the foundation for the country’s reindustrialisation, providing domestic, clean, and competitive energy.
However, this success brings structural challenges that cannot be overlooked.
New challenges for the electricity system
High renewable penetration is not a problem —it’s an opportunity. But it requires adapting the system’s technical architecture to ensure safety and stability. Key challenges include:
1. Shifting generation patterns
Spain is moving from a model based on large power plants to one with distributed generation. This demands more flexible planning and a grid capable of managing new regional dynamics. In this context, dispatchable power plants, including nuclear facilities, are essential.
2. Imbalances between generation and demand
In recent years, electricity demand has dropped by around 8 TWh, while generation has increased by 14 TWh. Pumped storage and exports have compensated for this imbalance. However, renewable energy curtailments are already appearing —evidence that the grid cannot absorb all available potential.
3. Delays in critical infrastructure
The National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) calls for tripling investment in the grid by 2030, yet only one-third of the planned investment has been executed. Without batteries, interconnections, and voltage control systems, it will be impossible to guarantee supply security.
4. Grid saturation
Capacity maps published by distribution companies show a saturated grid. In 2024, more than half of the 67 GW requested were rejected due to lack of capacity. Unserved industrial requests alone represent €60 billion in lost business investment.
5. Insufficient regulatory framework
The current rate of return (5.58%) does not incentivise the required investment. The sector is proposing 7.5%, in line with Europe (7.3%–8.5%). Without an attractive regulatory framework, there is a risk of stalling essential investments for economic and energy development.
Why is grid investment essential?
The electricity grid is the backbone of the system. Without a robust, modern, and properly sized grid:
- More renewables cannot be integrated.
- Demand cannot be electrified.
- Supply stability cannot be guaranteed.
It’s important to debunk a myth: investing in grids does not increase consumer bills —quite the opposite. An efficient grid reduces operating costs and avoids extra costs caused by inefficiencies.
To reinforce the electricity system, it is necessary to deploy backup technologies such as batteries, reactors, synchronous systems, and firm generation (including nuclear).
The 28 April blackout may affect the perception of reliability of the Spanish electricity system abroad. Spain competes to attract industry and talent, so supply security is a key factor for investment. If the country does not act, it risks losing strategic opportunities in sectors like green hydrogen, e-mobility, and digitalisation.
A fair rate of return
Increasing investment in the grid requires streamlining regulations: enabling anticipatory investments and speeding up permitting. Updating the rate of return is also essential: a 7.5% rate would align Spain with the European and global environment. In the U.S., returns can reach 8%.
Countries across the world are investing decisively in electricity grids under incentivising frameworks. If Spain does not follow suit, its economic development will be limited and its competitive advantage weakened. Spain has sun, wind, and competitive prices, but it needs a grid that matches these strengths.
The 28 April blackout was a warning: the energy transition is irreversible, but it cannot move forward without a solid technical architecture to support system security.
The success of renewables should not be overshadowed by the lack of investment in the grid. Spain has the opportunity to lead Europe’s energy transition. To do so, it must guarantee a secure, stable, and reliable electricity supply.
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