Endesa breaks its investment record once again with €10,600 million for 2026-2028 after earning €2,351 million, up 18%, last year

A plan to extract full value from the energy transition

Regarding the update of the strategic plan for the 2026–2028 period, Endesa shows that it is exceptionally well-positioned to lead the energy transition and capitalise on the vast opportunities arising from the necessary electrification of the economy (transport, industry, and buildings), as well as the attraction of new consumption from industry and data centres (which will absorb around 5% of total demand in 2030, some 15 TWh). This electrification will make it possible to be more competitive and reduce external energy dependence, whilst reducing emissions.

From a financial standpoint, the plan estimates that around 85% of the EBITDA to be obtained over the next three years (some €18,000 million) is regulated or contracted, as it stems from regulated businesses or activities that are already committed. This provides the market with solid visibility regarding the return on the company’s assets and investments. Likewise, an average annual growth in results of 4% is forecast, underpinned by growth across all businesses thanks to increased investment, productivity boosts, and efficiency. 

The main financial variables for 2028 are: achieving an average annual growth in gross operating profit of 4% to between €6,200 and €6,500 million; an ordinary net profit of between €2,500 and €2,600 million, which would also increase by an average of 4% annually; and keeping net debt in a range of between €14,000 and €15,000 million, which would entail a leverage ratio of 2.3 times, up from 1.8 times at the end of last year.

Eighty per cent of the total €10,600 million investment will be allocated to the two main areas of the energy transition: distribution networks and renewables, which absorb €8,500 million, 10% more than in the previous plan. The distribution of resources between the two businesses changes significantly, however, as the volume allocated to the grid grows by 40% while the amount dedicated to renewables is reduced by 20% (due to a more selective approach to this type of investment and the fact that certain projects have been rescheduled to dates beyond this plan).

• Distribution networks

More than half of the resources, €5,500 million (the aforementioned 40% increase), will be allocated to reinforcing the electricity grid. This scenario is contingent on the approval of the announced Royal Decree allowing investments to be raised above current investment limits and guaranteeing the recognition of 100% of the investments made. The aim is to open the door to more connections for new customers in a context of widespread saturation of this infrastructure across Spain and in Endesa’s distribution areas: 88% and 94%, respectively.

In fact, in 2025 the company was only able to authorise 18% of all grid connection requests, out of a total of 26,000 MW in applications (a level that doubles the peak demand of Endesa’s distribution network, highlighting the significant latent demand that exists). Grid saturation has become a major barrier to economic growth, the electrification of industry, and the achievement of decarbonisation targets.

Boosting investment in networks is, therefore, critical to ensure Spain does not miss this strategic opportunity to drive its sustainable economic growth. The company understands that the Government is fully aware of the severe existing restrictions and trusts that the future Royal Decree, which will increase investment limits, will create room to accelerate grid reinforcement.

It should also be noted that 80% of the planned grid investments will become part of the regulated asset base (RAB), which will thus increase by 13% from €11,500 million at the end of 2025 to an estimated €13,000 million at the end of 2028.

• Renewables

Investments in renewables will total a further €3,000 million, 28% of the total, and will be guided by selective criteria with a focus on wind power and storage infrastructure. Together, these will account for 1,500 MW of the 1,900 MW expected to be added to the renewable generation base by the end of 2028.

Renewable production at the end of the period will thus stand at 25.2 TWh, up from 17.7 TWh at the end of 2025, thanks to the increase in installed capacity to 13,200 MW across wind, hydro, solar, and storage. Overall, the strategy involves improving the profitability of the generation mix by rebalancing in favour of wind – which has a better profile than solar – and storage, while improving the productivity of hydro assets.

Alongside all this, Endesa has set up a platform comprising up to 3,000 MW of hybrid renewable projects on the Iberian Peninsula, ready for signing long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), including with data centres, featuring grid connections for the operators of those centres and available land to speed up their implementation.

Particularly noteworthy in this regard is the progress on certain projects, such as the just transition project in Pego (Portugal), construction of which is scheduled to begin in 2027. It will incorporate 600 MW of new hybrid renewable capacity (wind, solar, and batteries), with an estimated investment of €600 million. Its hybrid configuration allows for an energy profile close to baseload, making it highly suitable for large-scale customers such as data centres.

• Retail

The electricity and gas retail business will absorb another €900 million. Strengthening in-person customer service, alliances such as the one struck with MasOrange for cross-selling (fully operational since early February), and achieving efficiencies to maintain competitiveness in a highly challenging market will be the key pillars of this activity.

Endesa expects that its commitment to in-person customer service, coupled with the recent approval of regulations restricting spam calls and telephone contracting, will reduce fraud in this activity and help improve the customer switching rate between suppliers in the medium term. Since the effective completion of the acquisition of Energía Colectiva from MasOrange on 9 February 2026, the company has added around 400,000 electricity customers and, as a result, expects to reach 6.7 million in the free market by the end of 2028.

• Role of nuclear energy

The company has reiterated to the market the need to adapt the nuclear power plant closure plan agreed in 2019 to the actual progress of the INECP, to bolster security of supply in light of the significant delay in meeting wind power and storage capacity targets for 2030. Nuclear technology is the most competitive and efficient compared to any alternative. Under equal fiscal conditions with other technologies, the cost of replacing the nuclear profile with a mix of solar, batteries, and gas plants would be twice that of nuclear energy. Therefore, Endesa advocates extending its operation beyond the planned closure dates to continue providing firmness and reducing the electricity system’s costs and emissions.

A first step in this regard has been the request for an operating extension for the two reactors at the Almaraz power plant until mid-2030, submitted to the Ministry for the Ecological Transition last November.

• Baseline 2030 vision

Endesa has also provided a preview of some key metrics for the end of the decade, specifically those most directly related to the energy transition (renewables and networks), which allow visualising the company’s capacity to capture the growth opportunities of this transition process. In particular, it expects to reach an installed renewable capacity of between 14,000 and 15,000 MW, including assets that will already be under construction in 2028, as well as new capacity that will be used to meet the aforementioned increase in electricity demand. Furthermore, it expects to bring the regulated asset base in the distribution network to €15,000 million and estimates that the average annual 5% increase in earnings per share will be maintained, rising from €2.30 in 2025 to a range between €2.80 and €3.

In addition, the company has around €5,000 million in additional flexibility that could be mobilised without compromising financial discipline. These resources could be used to maximise the utilisation of hybrid project locations, pursue selective acquisitions aligned with the long-term strategy, and accelerate the rollout of storage to meet growing system flexibility needs.

All these opportunities will lead to greater earnings growth, resulting in improved shareholder remuneration.

• Sustainability and emissions reduction

The emissions reduction pathway also remains as announced in previous strategic plans, having achieved a 65% reduction in peninsular emissions at the end of 2025 compared to 2017, down to 25 million tonnes of CO2 (of which 7 million come from the non-peninsular business, which is regulated and therefore not manageable by the company). For 2030, the reduction pathway remains compatible with the international scenario of keeping the global temperature increase to no more than 1.5 ºC. By the end of the decade, emissions would stand at 19 million tonnes of CO2, 6 million of which would come from non-peninsular systems. For 2040, the goal of being a zero-emissions company in the generation and retail businesses is maintained.

In short, Endesa’s roadmap for the next three financial years will be underpinned by these four key pillars:

1. Growth based on highly predictable and low-risk activities, with a clear focus on businesses and projects with long-term visibility, stable cash flows, and solid returns.
2. Efficiency as a central pillar of the strategy to boost the company’s performance and competitiveness.
3. Financial flexibility that provides sensible options for growth and value creation, whilst allowing it to capture attractive opportunities and adapt to market changes.
4. All of this converges on a single, clear goal: to offer solid and attractive profitability growth for our shareholders.

Results 2025

Regarding the 2025 results, the company comfortably exceeded the upper end of the guidance communicated to the market: a gross operating profit of €5,756 million, up 9%, and an ordinary net profit of €2,351 million, up 18%. All business segments – except renewable generation, due to lower wind and solar volumes and prices – increased their contribution to EBITDA, with conventional generation performing particularly strongly thanks to the gas business.

The unit electricity margin maintained a solid performance during the year, despite the surcharge of the so-called ‘reinforced operation’ implemented by the system operator following the blackout on 28 April. It stood at €52/MWh, down from €55/MWh in 2024. All this was achieved with sales in the liberalised market of 71 TWh, the same volume as the previous year. Regarding the gas business, the volume sold also remained flat (78 TWh, of which 16 TWh corresponded to the consumption of combined cycle plants), but the unit margin rose to €9/MWh, more than double the previous year, thanks to the hedging strategy and the resilience of the residential segment.

This solid financial performance was recorded in a 2025 marked by the confirmation of growth in electricity demand, up 2% at the peninsular level; and with highly competitive Iberian pool prices on a European scale, at €65/MWh, although the final price was increased by a further €16/MWh due to the surcharge for ancillary services – €5/MWh more than the previous year – as a consequence of the aforementioned ‘reinforced operation’. The dynamics of the wholesale market show that intraday volatility has remained at very high levels and has become a structural challenge, even though the average price was very similar to that of 2024 (when it stood at €63/MWh).

The year also consolidated the strategy of efficient capital deployment to strengthen the asset base and retail capabilities through the closing of four corporate transactions – three acquisitions of hydro assets (630 MW), wind assets (100 MW), and retail operations (Energía Colectiva, the electricity and gas supplier of the MasOrange group with almost 400,000 customers), and another involving the sale of photovoltaic assets (49.99% of a 446 MW operational solar portfolio to Masdar).

Endesa invested €3,200 million during the year, 55% more than in the previous financial year, allocating 77% to networks and renewables, the pillars of the energy transition.

The company has also strengthened the sustainability of its financial position thanks to the generation of a free cash flow of €4,100 million, €500 million more than in 2024. This allows it to cover a significant percentage of its investments (€3,000 million on a cash flow basis) as well as the payment of dividends (€1,500 million) and the first phase of the share buyback programme (€525 million), while maintaining a leverage ratio of 1.8 times, the same level as the previous year.