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Electricity demand: your consumption guide

Understanding the factors that determine electricity demand is essential for forecasting your business’s consumption and sizing the necessary electrical infrastructure. By analysing these aspects, you can identify the available energy resources, which directly influence the level of production you can achieve. 

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Alternatively, it’s equally important to know your real-time energy demand to plan your electrical set up effectively and optimise your tariff. The first step towards achieving this is to understand what factors determine electricity demand.

 

Electricity demand trends

This parameter is most closely tied to the long-term use. As your business expands, energy consumption usually rises in parallel with increased activity. However, there are several factors that may influence this trend.

For instance, let’s say that you are implementing an energy efficiency plan alongside your growth strategy. This may temper the expected increase in demand by promoting more responsible resource use.

But demand trends can also frequently experience abrupt changes. This happens when changes are implemented at a specific point in time, immediately altering electricity consumption from that moment onward. For example, if a business replaces traditional lighting with energy-saving bulbs.

Other trends gradually evolve, with variations intensifying over time. These often stem from external factors that concern customers, like marketing campaigns, sociodemographic changes, or market structure adjustments, which eventually reshape production processes and energy consumption patterns.

 

Cyclic factors of electricity demand and consumpti

Cyclic variations in electricity demand occur over specific periods, usually exceeding one year. These continuous cycles often feature phases of increased or decreased energy consumption. Generally, such patterns are common in businesses engaged in periodic projects. For instance, a workshop producing specialised components may have a long process as it continuously manufactures its said components. Thus, the cycle of energy consumption is tied to each production phase, which repeats over and over again.

Broader economic cycles may also impact business activity, which can lead to periods of crisis and prosperity alternating every few years. At the same time, these periods are interspersed with phases of recovery and less pronounced downturns.

Additionally, some businesses may be impacted by specific solar and biogeochemical cycles. These cycles often do not maintain the same periodicity across all phases, meaning they wouldn't be cyclical in the strict sense. However, when they do exhibit regular patterns, they can significantly influence changes in the business's electricity consumption.

 

Seasonality in energy consumption

Seasonal variations resemble cycles but occur within shorter timeframes, usually under a year. Examples include daily or weekly fluctuations, seasonal peaks, or specific times of year when demand is consistently higher or lower.

Most businesses experience the strongest variations during these periods. For instance, some companies consume minimal energy during off-hours, aside from simply machinery, lighting, or devices. However, almost all businesses see demand spikes during peak business periods.

Understanding these seasonal variations is crucial. For example, your peak demand may occur on Thursdays, with greater increases during winter afternoons. Therefore, identifying these patterns is critical for determining the type of infrastructure your business needs.

Seasonal variations may also be influenced by calendar-specific events like Easter or other movable holidays that don't have a fixed date, which recur annually but not on the same date.

 

Other factors influencing electricity demand.

In addition to typical contributors, there are other factors that can significantly impact electricity demand, such as external shocks. These unpredictable events—economic crises, natural disasters, or accidents—arise without a fixed schedule and are out of the company’s control. Positive externalities, such as favourable market conditions, can also leave their mark on your energy bill.

While these shocks are hard to accurately predict, forecasts can often be made. Historical data can help reasonably estimate their likelihood and potential impact, meaning these shocks can occur with a certain intensity and within a specific range.

Furthermore, other variables can influence demand at any given time, such as project-specific developments. Here, effective demand-side management becomes crucial, as detailed consumption analysis can guide strategic decision-making to optimise resources. Moreover, the consumption in one period can directly impact subsequent periods.

Lastly, there is always an element driven by multiple random factors. Even if the exact effect may be uncertain, it’s possible to forecast the range within which these variables are likely to fall, enabling better planning.

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