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The path to the energy transition and electrification
In recent years, consumers have increasingly sought out sustainable companies that share their environmental values, driven by the desire for responsible consumption. These include local SMEs, businesses that reduce water usage or emissions, and especially brands that use renewable, green, and clean energy sources.
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The problem: fossil fuels and CO2
Around 80% of the primary energy consumed worldwide is sourced from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas. These fuels are obtained by refining crude oil or gas extracted from deposits that were created through the accumulation of the fossilised remains of living things that died millions of years ago.
The use of these fuels is creating a significant problem. Burning them releases CO2 (carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere, causing an alarming increase of this gas which subsequently alters the natural carbon cycle.
The consequence: the greenhouse effect
There is a natural equilibrium between the CO2 present in the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere, and the biosphere. Usually, this balance should be somewhere between 170 and 330 parts per million, but the burning of fossil fuels means that it is currently at around 415 parts per million.
This higher concentration of CO2 prevents a significant portion of the heat that enters with the sun’s rays from escaping into outer space from the atmosphere, generating the situation known as the greenhouse effect. The direct consequence of this is global warming, which is having a negative effect on the Earth’s ecosystem and contributing to climate change and its adverse effects.
The current situation in Spain: dependency on fossil fuels
In Spain, 66% of the primary energy comes from fossil sources. Petroleum-derived products are the main resource for powering transport by land, sea, and air. Gas is also used, particularly for industrial purposes and to a lesser extent by the residential, services, and institutional sectors.
This is because the different forms of transport rely on internal combustion engines, while gas is usually used for domestic heating and hot water in most of the country.
What solutions are available?
Given this situation, Spain's decarbonisation of seems like a daunting challenge. There are, however, two realistic options in the medium-term:
The first of these is to maintain the current arrangements for combustion engines and gas boilers, but powering them with new fuels that are renewable in origin. The second revolves around changing to electric vehicles and using electricity for heating and hot water.
To decide which of these two options is more viable, we will study their direct impacts and the energy required to power them, estimating the size of the energy generation capacity that each scenario requires.
Solution #1: environmentally friendly fuels
Keep using today’s internal combustion engines in vehicles for transport and continue to use current gas boilers for heating and hot water. It will be necessary, however, to take fossil fuels out of the picture.
The advantages are obvious: we can keep using our vehicles and boilers. Unfortunately, this solution is not very feasible because it actually involves two distinct options
Biofuels and their problems
The first option for this solution would mean moving directly to the use of organically-sourced fuels (bioenergy) such as bioethanol and biodiesel.
There are significant problems with this option because these agricultural waste resources are not produced in sufficient quantities to decarbonise the economy. In addition, this situation would be harmful to the economy, and would probably lead to famines and shortages, especially in poorer countries.
If we consider diversification by country, importing these sources into Spain would not offer a solution to the problem. The increase of biological resources in the importing country would lead to a reduction of these resources in the exporting country, which would be compensated by greater consumption of fossil fuels and emissions into the atmosphere. In other words, importing biogas would effectively mean exporting our CO2 emissions.
Electrofuels and their problems
The second option to obtain clean fuels, but without resorting to agricultural products, would involve “making” them instead of “growing” them.
Green hydrogen, produced by using electricity generated from renewable sources and then converted into synthetic fuel, is a type of fuel with properties and applications that are very similar to those of fossil fuels.
The problem with this option lies with the enormous resources required. The total amount of power generation capacity needed to cover the annual final energy demanded in Spain is around 240 TWh. This process would require the installation of around 130 GW of new renewable energy generating capacity.
To give us an idea of the scale, the current total installed capacity in Spain is 118GW, so we would have to double this, and it would still be insufficient.
Solution #2: electrification
If keeping our internal combustion engines and heating and hot water systems is not feasible, we will have to look at the other alternative. This focuses on replacing today’s vehicle stock with electric vehicles, changing gas heating for electrical heating systems and gas-powered hot-water boilers for electrical ones.
Because electric engines and elements are more efficient than fuel-powered ones, the total amount of energy needed would be 73 Twh, which would require the installation of 40 GW of power from new renewable generation. This solution therefore seems more suitable than the previous one because we have considerably lowered the total energy needed and the generating capacity.
The problem in this case clearly lies in replacing today’s vehicle stock with new electric vehicles, coupled with the additional problem of providing a robust network of charging points. Then there is the matter of replacing gas or diesel heating and hot water systems with electric ones. All of this would obviously also require the reinforcement of the electricity transmission and distribution grid to adapt it to the new requirements.
Electrification of private cars
There are around 24 million vehicles in our country, so the challenge we face is immense. First of all, we believe that public incentive programmes are needed to persuade users to choose cars with electric motors when they come to replace their current vehicle.
Secondly, no amount of incentives will be effective without a dense network of charging points that reaches every town, city and highway, and this charging network must be generously distributed across the whole country.
Electrification of heavy transport, industrial and agricultural vehicles
Larger and heavier vehicles are likely to have more difficulties in finding viable options with electric motors, so in this case we could move towards the use of biofuels and electrofuels. It is not unreasonable to limit this environmentally-friendly fuel solution to large vehicles and industrial engines.
Electrification of air and sea transport
In this case, the most reasonable solution may possibly be the same as for the previous point; the optimal solution for this kind of transport could be to change to fuels with a natural or electrical origin. Even so, electrical solutions are being studied for short flights in small aircraft.
Electrification of the residential sector
The advantage of the residential sector, as regards the energy transition, is that it can be totally electrified. However, the changeover demands significant investment on the part of the public and the owners of the properties. We must also accept that without clear and transparent incentives from the public authorities, this replacement will not happen quickly.
Electrification of the tertiary sector
When it comes to the service sector, the reasoning is very similar to that of the previous section, because most of the tertiary sector economy is based in private properties. Therefore, the companies and business owners who invest in electrical systems for heating and hot water should also be offered special conditions to encourage them.
Electrification of the industrial sector
Finally, there are some industrial activities, especially processes that require high temperatures, that cannot be electrified but can be modified to consume environmentally-friendly fuels. Similarly, while there are processes where electrification is possible but would entail the replacement of large boilers and complex machinery, it might be preferable to resort to using green hydrogen.
The option of using green hydrogen in fuel cells could prove to be vital for other business processes that currently rely on consuming fossil fuels. The production of hydrogen could also make use of plants and the waste products of renewable energy generation.
Conclusions about the energy transition and electrification
A sustainable future for Spain necessarily requires the electrification of the economy to the extent possible. We need to accept that there will always be certain sectors or niches where the issue has to be addressed differently, usually through the use of green hydrogen or environmentally-friendly fuels. Even so, the majority of processes must be electrified
There are essentially two issues that need to be addressed. The first is the installation of new renewable energy generation. Secondly, the provision and reinforcement of a new transmission grid for wider distribution of electricity at high, medium and low voltages. Regardless of the investment that is required, it is therefore essential to have a secure legal framework that offers sufficient guaranteed protection for the investors.
Of course, it is a fascinating challenge. The opportunity to address it as explained above would mark a turning point for our country, positioning Spain and its decarbonisation process as an international leader and model to be emulated.
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